It’s a dismal ritual of American life: A mass shooting occurs — sometimes more than one, in quick succession. The country mourns the victims. And nothing changes.
I expect the same will happen following the killings in Atlanta and Boulder, Colo. But it is still worth taking a few minutes to lay out the basic facts about gun violence. The key one is simply this: The scale of gun deaths in the United States is not inevitable. The country could reduce the death toll, perhaps substantially, if it chose to.
1. The toll approaches pancreatic cancer’s
When gun violence is counted as a single category — spanning homicides, suicides and accidents — it kills about 40,000 Americans a year.
That’s far behind the country’s biggest killers, like heart disease (about 650,000 annual deaths) or Alzheimer’s (about 125,000). But it is broadly comparable to the toll from many well-known causes of death, including an average flu season (35,000), vehicle accidents (39,000), breast cancer (42,000), liver disease (43,000) or pancreatic cancer (45,000).
2. More guns mean more deaths
Republican members of Congress often claim otherwise. After the Boulder shootings, John Thune of South Dakota, the Senate’s second-ranking Republican, dismissed calls for restricting gun availability, saying, “There’s not a big appetite among our members to do things that would appear to be addressing it, but actually don’t do anything to fix the problem.”
But there is overwhelming evidence that this country has a unique problem with gun violence, mostly because it has unique gun availability.
It’s not just that every other high-income country in the world has many fewer guns and many fewer gun deaths. It’s also that U.S. states with fewer guns — like California, Illinois, Iowa and much of the Northeast — have fewer gun deaths. And when state or local governments have restricted gun access, deaths have often declined, Michael Siegel of Boston University’s School of Public Health says.
“The main lesson that comes out of this research is that we know which laws work,” Siegel says. (Nicholas Kristof, the Times columnist, has written a good overview, called “How to Reduce Shootings.”)
3. Mass shootings aren’t the main problem
They receive huge attention, for obvious reasons: They are horrific. But they are also not the primary source of gun violence. In 2019, for example, only about one out of every 400 gun deaths was the result of a mass shooting (defined as any attack with at least four deaths). More than half of gun deaths are from suicides, as Margot Sanger-Katz of The Times has noted.
Still, many of the policies that experts say would reduce gun deaths — like requiring gun licenses and background checks — would likely affect both mass shootings and the larger problem.
4. Public opinion is complicated
Yes, an overwhelming majority of Americans support many gun-regulation proposals — like background checks — that congressional Republicans have blocked. And, yes, the campaign donations of the National Rifle Association influence the debate.
But the main reason that members of Congress feel comfortable blocking gun control is that most Americans don’t feel strongly enough about the issue to change their votes because of it. If Americans stopped voting for opponents of gun control, gun-control laws would pass very quickly. This country’s level of gun violence is as high as it is because many Americans have decided that they are OK with it.
5. The filibuster is pro-gun
Gun control is yet another issue in which the filibuster helps Republican policy priorities and hurts Democratic priorities. On guns (as on climate change, taxes, Medicare access, the minimum wage, immigration and other issues), Republicans are happier with the status quo than Democrats. The filibuster — which requires 60 Senate votes to pass most bills, rather than a straight majority of 51 — protects the status quo.
If Democrats were to change the filibuster, as many favor, it isn’t hard to imagine how a gun-control bill could become law this year. With the filibuster, it is almost impossible to imagine.
The latest news:
The White House is planning executive orders on gun control, including one to strengthen the background checks system.
Less than two weeks before the shooting in Boulder, Colo., a court decided that the city could not enforce its ban on assault weapons.
THE LATEST NEWS
AstraZeneca released more data from its U.S. trial, reiterating that its Covid vaccine offered strong protection. The information strengthens the shot’s scientific case, but it might not repair the company’s embattled image.
More than 40 states say they will meet President Biden’s goal of making every adult eligible for a vaccine by May 1.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York arranged special access to government-run virus testing for his family members early in the pandemic, before widespread testing was available.
Universities could substantially reduce their infection rates if they devoted half their testing resources to people in surrounding communities, a study found.
The Olympic torch relay started in Japan, though questions linger about whether the Games should go ahead.
Biden appointed Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the response to the surge in migrants at the border, with a focus on improving conditions in Central American countries.
The Senate held its first hearing on a major expansion of voting rights, and Republicans were adamant in their opposition. If Democrats want to pass the bill, they will almost certainly have to end the filibuster.
In several Republican-controlled states, lawmakers are moving to wrest control of elections away from secretaries of state, governors and nonpartisan boards.
The Upshot asked 10 prominent economists whether Biden’s pandemic relief bill could “overheat” the economy. Here’s what they said.
Biden is holding his first official White House news conference today.
Other Big Stories
A container ship nearly a quarter-mile long has been stuck in the Suez Canal in Egypt since Tuesday evening, blocking a vital shipping lane.
Virginia abolished the death penalty, the first Southern state to do so.
Last week’s deadly shooting in Atlanta highlights the story of two immigrant paths and exposes the wealth divide among people of Asian descent in the U.S.
Federal prosecutors charged Victor Rivera, the former head of a network of homeless shelters in New York, with fraud and money laundering. Rivera was already under investigation after 10 women accused him of sexual assault or harassment.
The Times tech reporter Kevin Roose wanted to get a better understanding of NFTs. His latest column is for sale.
Could a “seatbelt safety” approach help reduce teen suicides? Pamela Morris of N.Y.U. asks in a Times Op-Ed.
Republicans supported voting rights until they learned they do better when fewer people vote, Eleanor Clift writes in The Daily Beast. Jamelle Bouie, a Times columnist, disagrees: 2020 proved that the party can compete even in high-turnout elections, he argues.
Republicans’ structural advantages in the Senate mean that abolishing the filibuster may deepen, not fix, minority rule, David French argues in Time magazine.
Timeless Tunes: The Library of Congress designated 25 recordings as “audio treasures worthy of preservation for all time.” Among the picks: a song by Kermit the Frog.
Lives Lived: Jessica McClintock dressed generations of women in calico, lace and beribboned pastiches known as granny dresses. Her clients included Vanna White and a 27-year-old Hillary Rodham for her 1975 wedding to Bill Clinton. McClintock died at 90.
ARTS AND IDEAS
Can HGTV survive streaming?
Over 26 years, HGTV has built an empire out of passive watching: While people fold their laundry or scroll through social media, they keep the network’s home-improvement shows on in the background. The only cable networks that have larger average audiences are CNN, Fox News and MSNBC. But the rise of streaming — which leads people to make more deliberate viewing decisions — presents a threat to the network.
“HGTV is a splendid, crenellated house in a neighborhood built on quicksand and termite tunnels,” Ian Parker writes in The New Yorker. “The latest streaming-video subscriptions have been sold on the promise of content that is remarkable.” HGTV, as Parker notes, “is low-budget and unassuming.”
In response, the network is trying to make splashy shows that are “special and different and intriguing,” one HGTV executive said, while still offering “comfort television.” Among the concepts discussed: a birdhouse-building competition; a show that mixes renovation and dating; and a program on which the rapper Lil Jon helps people remodel their homes, with the working title of “Torn Down for What.”
HGTV is now part of the Discovery+ streaming platform, which is tiny compared with Netflix and Disney+. But HGTV’s value also lies in the size of its library, which includes hundreds of episodes of popular shows like “House Hunters” and “Fixer Upper.”
For more: Discovery+ brings a cable-era way of watching TV to streaming.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to Cook
Transform store-bought gnocchi by pan-frying them with tomatoes and mozzarella.
What to Read
“Francis Bacon: Revelations,” by Mark Stevens and Annalyn Swan, offers a comprehensive account of the painter’s life. “Where Bacon went, a story followed,” Parul Sehgal writes in a review.
What to Watch
This week brings the series finale of “Superstore,” a delightful, smart sitcom about working-class life.
The hosts discussed the ship in the Suez Canal.
Now Time to Play
The pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was function. Here is today’s puzzle — or you can play online.
Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Frequent flier (five letters).
If you’re in the mood to play more, find all our games here.
Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David
P.S. Priya Krishna, a food writer who previously worked at Bon Appétit, is joining The Times, where she will write and appear on NYT Cooking’s YouTube channel.
You can see today’s print front page here.
Today’s episode of “The Daily” is about the vaccine rollout. On “Sway,” Glennon Doyle discusses misogyny, the power of apologies and more.
Lalena Fisher, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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